The 2026 World Cup qualifiers continue on September 5, 2025, as Italy welcome Estonia to Rome. After a turbulent start to their campaign, the Azzurri enter this match under new management, while Estonia face yet another uphill challenge against a traditional European powerhouse.
Prediction Overview
The recommended betting selection is BTTS – No. Italy are expected to dominate and secure a clean sheet, while Estonia’s limited scoring record against top-tier opposition suggests they will struggle to break through. This market offers a disciplined, value-driven approach to a fixture historically one-sided in favor of Italy.
Italy’s Fresh Start Under Gattuso
Italy’s qualifying campaign began in disappointing fashion with a 0–3 defeat away to Norway, immediately raising fears of missing another World Cup after their absences in 2018 and 2022. They responded with a 2–0 home win over Moldova, but that match marked the end of Luciano Spalletti’s tenure. Gennaro Gattuso now takes over as head coach, tasked with revitalizing a squad full of quality but in need of confidence and tactical stability. Italy have never lost to Estonia, and with Gattuso debuting in front of home fans, expectations are for a convincing win built on defensive solidity and attacking efficiency.
Estonia’s Struggles on the Road
Estonia have already played four qualifiers, recording a single win - a 3–2 away victory over Moldova - while losing the other three. That result aside, their attack has been inconsistent, with just five goals scored across those matches and frequent lapses at the back. Compounding their challenge, they will be without their captain for this trip, further weakening their already limited experience. Historically, Estonia struggle badly against nations of Italy’s caliber, often failing to score, and their away record underscores the difficulty of earning results in these settings.
Head-to-Head and Match Dynamics
Italy boast a perfect record against Estonia, winning every prior encounter without exception. Moreover, Estonia have failed to score in the majority of those meetings. Betting markets and statistical previews strongly back the expectation of a one-sided contest where Italy control possession and deny Estonia meaningful chances. A BTTS – No outcome is therefore the most reliable market, with a 2–0 or 3–0 Italian win fitting both the historical trend and current context.
