On 10 October 2025 at the Laugardalsvöllur in Reykjavik, Iceland host Ukraine in a crucial Euro 2026 qualifying fixture that could shape the battle for second place in the group behind France.
Prediction Overview: Correct Score 1–1
The prediction is a 1–1 draw, a result that captures both teams’ current trajectories - Iceland’s revival and Ukraine’s inconsistency. Both sides have enough attacking capacity to find the net, yet neither has demonstrated the control or confidence to fully dominate. A split outcome fits recent scoring patterns and situational motivation for both nations.
Iceland’s Renewed Confidence at Home
After a difficult 2024, Iceland have shown clear improvement in 2025 under coach Åge Hareide. Their spirited 1–2 defeat in France last month showcased organization and resilience against a superior opponent. Before that, they thrashed Azerbaijan 5–0 in Reykjavik - a performance that reawakened belief and highlighted the continued attacking threat of veterans like Albert Guðmundsson and Jón Dagur Þorsteinsson.
Six of Iceland’s last seven matches have produced Over 2.5 goals, reflecting a shift toward a more assertive style at home. They press higher, use long diagonal balls effectively, and rely on direct play to create chaos in the opponent’s box. Still, defensive lapses persist, making it difficult for them to keep clean sheets against well-organized teams like Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Mixed Form and Struggles for Consistency
Ukraine enter this match looking to stabilize after a stretch of uneven results. They have just one win in their last five matches, a friendly against New Zealand, and most recently drew 1–1 away to Azerbaijan, a result that raised concerns about sharpness in attack. Though talented, the team has lacked fluidity in recent fixtures, especially in converting possession into clear chances.
Manager Serhiy Rebrov continues to rely on familiar names such as Mykhailo Mudryk, Viktor Tsygankov, and Roman Yaremchuk, but inconsistency in the final third remains an issue. On the positive side, Ukraine have scored in seven of their last nine matches, which supports the likelihood of at least one goal here. However, their defense has also conceded regularly, suggesting vulnerability away from home.
Tactical Flow & Match Expectation
Iceland will likely start energetically, pressing high and testing Ukraine’s back line with long deliveries and set pieces. Ukraine, on the other hand, will aim to control tempo through midfield rotations and exploit Iceland’s defensive gaps via counterattacks and wide overloads. Both sides have attacking flair but uneven defensive concentration - a recipe for a balanced, goal-sharing match.
Given both teams’ form and statistical patterns - Iceland’s tendency for open games and Ukraine’s mix of scoring and conceding - the 1–1 scoreline stands as the most probable outcome. It reflects parity in quality, motivation, and current performance trends.
