The Basque derby returns with high stakes as Real Sociedad host Athletic Club in the second leg of their cup clash on 4 March 2026. Sociedad hold a narrow 1-0 advantage from the first leg away, putting them in a strong position heading into the decisive match at home.
Real Sociedad have shown notable improvement since the start of the year. They have lost just once in their last 14 matches across all competitions, with that defeat coming against Real Madrid. While clean sheets have not been frequent lately, the team has maintained a strong attacking rhythm at home. Sociedad have scored exactly three goals in each of their last three home games, although their most recent one ended in a dramatic 3-3 draw with Oviedo.
Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals
Despite the offensive trends of both sides, the context of a cup semifinal second leg often leads to a more cautious and tactical approach. With Sociedad already holding a 1-0 advantage, Under 2.5 Goals appears to be the most logical selection.
Athletic Club have also shown improved form recently, losing only once in their last seven matches in all competitions - a defeat that came in the first leg against Sociedad. Their most recent league match ended in a 1-1 draw away at Rayo Vallecano. Interestingly, both teams have scored in 11 of Athletic’s last 12 matches, which highlights their attacking potential but also their defensive vulnerability.
Real Sociedad are likely to approach the match pragmatically, focusing on maintaining their advantage rather than chasing the game recklessly. Athletic Club, on the other hand, will need to push forward to overturn the deficit, but they may do so cautiously to avoid conceding a decisive second goal.
