At Estadio de Vallecas on 9 November 2025, Rayo Vallecano host Real Madrid in a La Liga derby that always carries a special edge in the Spanish capital. The visitors remain clear title favourites, yet Vallecano’s home form and spirited performances suggest this may be a trickier outing for Los Blancos than the table implies.
Vallecano Tough to Crack at Home
Rayo Vallecano continue to perform respectably this season despite a setback in the previous league round - a heavy 0–4 defeat away to Villarreal. They responded in midweek European action by coming from 0–2 down to edge Lech Poznań 3–2 in the Conference League, showing determination and character. In La Liga, Vallecano’s home games have followed a clear trend: all four so far have produced under 2.5 total goals. Notably, they have already held Barcelona to a 1–1 draw and suffered only one home defeat - a narrow 0–1 against Sevilla. Their compact structure and work rate make them a difficult opponent on home soil.
Madrid Dominant but Not Invincible
Real Madrid’s momentum took a small hit with their recent 0–1 Champions League loss away to Liverpool, but their domestic form remains excellent. Carlo Ancelotti’s men lead La Liga by five points after winning ten of their eleven league matches. However, defensive perfection continues to elude them - they have yet to record a clean sheet in the league. On their travels, Madrid have shown moments of vulnerability and history also favours caution here: they have won only once in their last five visits to Vallecas, often finding the atmosphere and Rayo’s intensity difficult to handle.
Prediction: AH – Home +1.5
While Real Madrid possess superior quality and depth, Vallecano’s resilience at home and historical competitiveness in this fixture suggest a closer contest than expected. With the hosts’ tendency to keep games tight and Madrid’s imperfect defensive record, the value lies in Rayo Vallecano +1.5 on the Asian Handicap - a bet supported by their ability to frustrate elite opponents at Vallecas.
