Qarabag has enjoyed a formidable run in the Champions League group stage this season, accumulating seven valuable points from their first five matches. Their losses were narrow away defeats to strong sides like Athletic Bilbao and Napoli, but their performances at home have been the bedrock of their success. In Baku, they secured a decisive 2-0 win over Copenhagen and battled hard for an impressive 2-2 draw against Chelsea. This form is part of a broader trend, as the Azerbaijani champions now hold a remarkable run of ten consecutive home games across all competitions without a loss, turning their stadium into a veritable fortress.
Ajax at Rock Bottom
The season has been nothing short of a catastrophe for Ajax in Europe. The Dutch side is currently at the bottom of the Champions League league phase, having lost all five of their matches. Their goal difference is dismal, managing only one goal scored against a colossal sixteen conceded, with every defeat being by a margin of two or more goals. While they have managed a recent win in their domestic championship, their European performances show a team severely lacking in confidence, defensive structure, and overall quality at this level. The emotional and physical toll of this campaign will make this final group game a significant challenge.
Prediction: Double chance: 1x
The contrast in form and confidence is stark. Qarabag enters the match highly motivated, knowing a positive result is within reach to cap off a historic campaign. They will lean on their defensive resilience and disciplined structure, looking to exploit Ajax’s fragile defense with quick transitions or through the atmosphere of their home ground. Ajax, playing only for pride and seeking a morale-boosting result, will likely struggle to break down a compact Qarabag side. Their recent domestic form is not strong enough to suggest a guaranteed European recovery, and their overall performance metrics show vulnerabilities that Qarabag is well-equipped to exploit. All signs point to the home side avoiding defeat in this fixture.
