At Groupama Stadium on 29 January 2026, Lyon host PAOK in the final round of the Europa League group stage, with both sides already assured of continuing their European journey but still chasing positional improvement. Lyon have secured direct qualification for the round of 16 and could also finish top of the group with another victory, while PAOK arrive knowing that only a win, combined with favourable results elsewhere, keeps alive their slim hopes of breaking into the top eight.
Prediction: PAOK +1.5 Asian Handicap
Despite Lyon’s excellent form, this fixture sets up as more competitive than the standings alone might suggest. PAOK arrive in strong rhythm and with a clear incentive to push for a result, while Lyon have little need to overextend themselves. The expectation is for a balanced contest where Lyon control phases without forcing the tempo, making a scenario in which PAOK remain within a goal margin, and therefore cover the +1.5 handicap, the most realistic outcome.
Lyon’s Momentum Balanced by Limited Need to Force the Issue
Lyon have been relentless in recent weeks, combining attacking efficiency with defensive stability. Lyon’s ability to dominate at home has been evident throughout the group stage, but with direct qualification already secured, there is no necessity to chase the game aggressively. Squad management and game control are likely to take precedence, particularly against an opponent capable of exploiting transitional spaces. That measured approach could naturally narrow the winning margin, even if Lyon dictate large spells.
PAOK’s Defensive Solidity Meets a Willingness to Attack Away from Home
PAOK arrive with confidence built on consistency and resilience. PAOK are unbeaten in their last seven matches across competitions and have kept clean sheets in four consecutive games, a reflection of improved organisation and discipline. In the group stage, however, PAOK’s away matches have followed a different pattern, with all three featuring goals at both ends and over 2.5 goals, including a memorable 4-3 win at Lille. That blend of defensive improvement and attacking ambition suggests PAOK are capable of staying competitive in Lyon.
