Liverpool host Everton at Anfield on 20 September 2025 in a Premier League clash, both sides under pressure to deliver.
Prediction Overview
The tip is Over 2.5 goals. Liverpool have been involved in high-scoring and late-drama matches this season, while Everton tend to concede and have failed to score in several recent away derbies. Given Liverpool’s offensive momentum and Everton’s defensive vulnerabilities, a match with at least three goals seems likely.
Liverpool’s Scoring Power & Conceding Moments of Drama
Liverpool are top of the Premier League, with 4 wins from 4 matches, scoring 9 goals, conceding 4. Their goals per game is ~2.25, while conceding ~1 per game. They’ve shown a trend of games where both scoring and small defensive lapses occur, e.g. the recent 3-2 win vs Atlético in the Champions League and a narrow victory at Burnley via penalty. Their scores tend to tilt late: multiple matches have been decided or equalized late, evidencing a pattern of open matches.
Everton’s Away Weakness & Defensive Gaps
Everton’s recent away performances at Anfield have been poor: they have lost several in a row at Anfield without scoring. Their defence, while sometimes resilient, has looked stretched in recent games - conceding via set-pieces, late goals or transitions. Their attack hasn’t been able to exploit many big chances, but Liverpool’s high pressing and attacking threat increase the likelihood that Everton will concede more than once. Also, in past Anfield derbies, many matches have been tight but still finish with multiple goals.
Head-to-Head & Goal Trends in Merseyside Derbies
Historical stats of Liverpool vs Everton show that while Liverpool have won most matches, many recent Anfield derbies finish with under 2.5 goals. For example, the last 5 home matches for Liverpool vs Everton have all yielded under 2.5 total goals. However, Liverpool matches this season are more open, with goals scored in most fixtures and some defensive lapses. These contradictory patterns suggest that while under-scoring is historically strong in this fixture, current form tilts toward more goals.
