At Cardiff City Stadium on 18 November 2025, Wales host North Macedonia in one of the most decisive matches of the entire qualifying cycle. The stakes could not be clearer: Wales must win to overtake North Macedonia for second place, while the visitors need only avoid defeat to secure their spot. The setup strongly points toward a tense, tactical battle.
Wales Under Pressure but Strong at Home
Wales enter the match knowing that victory is the only acceptable result. Their 1–0 win away to Liechtenstein kept them in contention, but it did little to alleviate concerns about their attacking fluency. At home, Wales were previously on an excellent run - four straight victories - before falling recently to Belgium. Even so, Cardiff has generally been a fortress, and the Welsh crowd is likely to add intensity to a match of such magnitude. The question remains whether Wales can generate enough consistent pressure to break down one of the group’s best defensive units.
North Macedonia Unbeaten and Defensively Elite
North Macedonia have been one of the surprises of the campaign, reaching this decisive moment without a single defeat. Remarkably, they have conceded only three goals in seven matches and remain unbeaten even against the group leaders Belgium. Their away form has been exceptional: three away games, zero goals conceded. More broadly, they have kept clean sheets in five of their last six away fixtures. With three consecutive draws behind them, another stalemate would suit them perfectly - and the team’s disciplined, compact style is built to achieve exactly that.
Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals
Given the enormous pressure on Wales, and North Macedonia’s proven ability to control matches defensively, this fixture is unlikely to open up. The visitors will slow the tempo, maintain structure, and force Wales into a patient - and often frustrated - attacking effort.
The selection is Under 2.5 goals, aligning with the tactical shape, stakes, and recent scoring profiles of both teams.
