At the MEWA Arena on 24 January 2026, Mainz welcome Wolfsburg in a Bundesliga clash that carries real weight in the battle for survival. Both teams remain uncomfortably close to the danger zone, and with the table extremely tight at the bottom, every point gained or dropped could prove decisive in the coming weeks.
Prediction: Under 3.5 Goals
Under 3.5 goals looks like the safest and most logical angle. Given the stakes, neither side is likely to approach the match recklessly, and both tend to struggle more with finishing than with chance creation.
Mainz Relying on Home Intensity
At home, Mainz have looked far more competitive than their league position suggests. Fischer’s side press with intensity, commit numbers in midfield, and try to impose physical battles rather than open games up tactically. However, goals have not come easily, and Mainz often need a high level of efficiency to turn pressure into results. In a match of this importance, control and discipline should take priority over attacking excess.
Wolfsburg Slightly Stabilised, but Still Fragile
Wolfsburg arrive having taken four points from their last two matches, which has helped them regain a bit of confidence. That said, their season remains uneven, and the memory of the recent 1-8 collapse against Bayern is still fresh. While Mainz are obviously not of Bayern’s calibre, that result underlined Wolfsburg’s vulnerability when matches become chaotic. Expect a more cautious approach here, focused on avoiding mistakes rather than chasing goals.
