The UEFA Champions League play-off second leg on August 26, 2025, brings a fascinating clash as Pafos FC host Crvena Zvezda (Red Star Belgrade) at the Stelios Kyriakides Stadium. The Cypriot champions carry a slender 2–1 advantage from the first leg in Belgrade, and history beckons as they look to reach the group stage for the first time ever.
Prediction Overview
The value pick here is Asian Handicap: Pafos +0.5, which covers both a home win and a draw. With momentum from their first-leg victory and strong home backing, Pafos are well placed to avoid defeat.
Pafos Riding Historic Momentum
Founded in 2014, Pafos have rapidly grown into Cyprus’s wealthiest and most ambitious football club. Their European story has already been remarkable - last season they set a national record for most European fixtures in a single campaign by reaching the Conference League Round of 16. Now, after claiming their first-ever Cypriot league title, they stand on the brink of a Champions League group stage debut. Their 2–1 first-leg triumph in Belgrade showed not only discipline but also clinical finishing, with the likes of Jairo and Onni Valakari posing consistent threats. At home, Pafos are even harder to break down, and the crowd in Paphos will expect another disciplined but confident showing.
Crvena Zvezda’s European Experience
Red Star remain one of the most experienced clubs in continental competition and are chasing a second consecutive Champions League group stage appearance. They overcame Lech Poznań in the previous round, winning 3–1 away after a 1–1 draw in Belgrade, proof of their ability to recover on foreign soil. Domestically, they continue to dominate Serbia’s SuperLiga, but the first-leg defeat against Pafos exposed defensive vulnerabilities. With players like Aleksandar Katai and Jean-Philippe Krasso leading their forward line, they retain the firepower to turn ties around, though the pressure of needing an away win adds to the challenge.
Head-to-Head and Tactical Outlook
The first leg highlighted both teams’ willingness to attack, producing three goals and plenty of chances. That trend could continue in Cyprus, where Red Star will be forced to push forward, leaving gaps for Pafos to exploit on the counterattack. While Red Star’s pedigree makes them favorites on paper, Pafos’s recent surge in form and historic momentum balance the equation. Betting models lean toward another BTTS outcome, but the safer angle lies in backing Pafos on a +0.5 Asian Handicap, which covers their ability to hold firm or repeat their success in front of their own fans.
