On 11 October 2025 at the Vasil Levski National Stadium in Sofia, Bulgaria face Türkiye in a Euro 2026 qualifying match where both sides aim to steady their campaigns after heavy defeats to Spain.
Prediction Overview: BTTS – No
The recommended pick is Both Teams to Score – No. Bulgaria’s lack of attacking cohesion and Türkiye’s organized defensive structure point toward a match in which only one team - most likely the visitors - finds the net. Given Bulgaria’s goal drought and Türkiye’s tendency to manage games through control and compactness, a low-scoring result with a clean sheet for the away side looks probable.
Bulgaria’s Crisis & Coaching Reset
Bulgaria enter this fixture amid turbulence. Their last three matches ended in heavy defeats by a combined score of 0–10, exposing systemic issues at both ends of the pitch. These results prompted a managerial change: Iliyan Iliev was dismissed, with former U21 coach Aleksandar Dimitrov appointed to rebuild confidence and discipline. In his debut squad, Dimitrov has made sweeping adjustments - five of the starters from the Spain loss were omitted, and notably there are no players from Cherno More Varna. The return of Ivan Turitsov to the national team has also sparked debate, underlining how unsettled the selection remains.
With a restructured lineup and low morale, Bulgaria’s immediate challenge is to rediscover organization and a basic attacking rhythm. Their inability to score in recent qualifiers - now four straight matches without a goal - makes it difficult to see them breaking down a disciplined opponent like Türkiye.
Türkiye’s Stability & Superior Quality
Türkiye arrive with a more balanced squad and far greater offensive potential. Under Vincenzo Montella, they began the campaign well with a 3–2 away victory over Georgia, showcasing their attacking flair and technical superiority. However, a 0–6 home defeat to Spain quickly tempered enthusiasm, serving as a harsh reminder of defensive vulnerabilities at the top level. Still, the Turks remain far ahead of Bulgaria in terms of squad quality, experience, and recent form - having won four of their last six matches overall.
Montella’s side will be without the suspended Barış Alper Yılmaz, but key figures like Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Kenan Yıldız, and Orkun Kökçü are available. Türkiye’s defense, when composed and concentrated, has shown resilience - particularly against lower-ranked sides. Expect them to dominate possession and restrict Bulgaria’s attacking ventures.
Tactical Flow & Match Outlook
The game will likely see Türkiye controlling territory and tempo while Bulgaria sit deep, seeking to avoid another heavy loss. The visitors will build patiently and look to strike through quick combinations or long-range efforts. Bulgaria’s restructured lineup could struggle for chemistry, making sustained attacking pressure unlikely. Türkiye’s experience and superior movement should be enough to produce a goal or two while keeping the home side scoreless.
Given the disparity in form, talent, and organization, BTTS – No fits the expected flow. A 0–2 or 0–3 scoreline for Türkiye aligns with recent trends and statistical probability.
