The new Bundesliga season kicks off with Bayer Leverkusen hosting Hoffenheim in Leverkusen, as the “Werkself” enter a new era without Xabi Alonso on the bench.
Match Tip
Leverkusen come into this fixture with a strong historical grip over Hoffenheim, having taken the win in each of their last meetings, including decisive victories in both directions. Their home form is particularly potent, with an impressive unbeaten run highlighting the squad’s cohesion and dominance in attack. Hoffenheim, while showing glimpses of quality in pre-season, face a step up in intensity here, especially at BayArena. The gap in squad depth and consistency also favors the home side. Models quantify Leverkusen’s win chance in the region of 55–63 %, reinforcing their clear edge. All these factors combine to make a Leverkusen win a compelling and realistically probable outcome.
The likelihood of both teams scoring is strongly supported by multiple indicators. A significant percentage of their past encounters saw goals at both ends-head-to-head stats indicate BTTS in around 65 % of matches. Model forecasts lend further confidence, assigning up to a 63 % probability to both teams getting on the scoresheet. Leverkusen occasionally concede at home, while Hoffenheim retain enough attacking threat to penetrate. With offensive balance and patterns of mutual scoring, ‘Both teams to score: Yes’ stands out as statistically grounded and tactically credible.
The form of Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen are coming off one of their most successful eras, crowned by Xabi Alonso’s tactical brilliance and a title-winning mentality. However, with Alonso gone, the challenge falls to Erik ten Hag, who arrives with a point to prove after an inconsistent spell at Manchester United. Still, his attacking philosophy, showcased during Ajax’s impressive 2019 Champions League run, fits well with Leverkusen’s squad. The team’s offensive depth with players like Wirtz, Schick, and Boniface should ensure goals remain a constant.
The form of Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim ended last season in mid-table, safe from relegation but never really threatening the European spots. Their main issue was a leaky defense, conceding regularly, but their attack often compensated, with Kramarić and Beier leading the line. Hoffenheim tend to thrive in open matches, and their style naturally leads to high-scoring encounters.
Head 2 Head analysis
This fixture has historically produced goals: Hoffenheim have scored in 11 of their last 12 league meetings with Leverkusen. The Werkself, meanwhile, have won the majority of recent clashes, but rarely without conceding. That trend points strongly toward both sides finding the net once again.
