On 11 October 2025 at the Daugava Stadium in Riga, Latvia host Andorra in a World Cup qualifier that offers both teams a chance to break out of their recent struggles, though expectations remain for a tight, low-scoring contest.
Prediction Overview: Under 2.5 Goals
The recommended pick is Under 2.5 goals, based on both teams’ prolonged scoring inefficiency. Latvia rarely win by large margins, while Andorra have been completely blunt in attack. The historical and statistical patterns strongly favor a compact, low-scoring match in which a single goal could decide the outcome.
Latvia’s Rare Opportunity for Points
Latvia enter this fixture with a realistic chance to earn a much-needed win, having prevailed 1–0 away to Andorra earlier in the campaign. That result remains their only victory in their last ten matches. The Baltic side’s last two wins - both 1–0 scorelines, against Andorra and the Faroe Islands - underline their preference for pragmatic, defense-first football.
Coach Dainis Kazakevičs has built a team that values shape and set-piece organization over attacking flair. Latvia’s home fixtures tend to be restrained affairs: 10 of their last 12 home matches have ended with Under 2.5 goals, reflecting both a lack of creativity in open play and a disciplined defensive posture. With limited offensive depth, they will likely seek to control tempo and rely on moments from Vladislavs Gutkovskis or Roberts Uldriķis to make the difference.
Andorra’s Endless Goal Drought
Andorra’s offensive record is historically poor - and recently, abysmal. They have not scored in eight consecutive matches, including all five qualifiers to date, and remain without a single point in this campaign. Away from home, the picture is even bleaker: Andorra have failed to score in their last 10 away matches and in 14 of their last 15 fixtures overall, with the lone exception being a friendly goal against San Marino.
Coach Koldo Álvarez continues to prioritize defensive resilience, often employing a five-man back line and minimal pressing. However, against even modestly superior opponents, the side struggles to advance possession into dangerous areas. Their matches almost always end with Under 2.5 goals, largely because they focus on damage limitation and rarely take attacking risks.
Expected Flow & Match Outlook
This encounter promises a cautious rhythm. Latvia will dominate possession but without overwhelming creativity, while Andorra will sit deep and hope to frustrate. With both teams averaging fewer than one goal per match across their last dozen games, the probability of multiple goals is minimal. Historical head-to-head results reinforce this view - five of the last six meetings have finished with two goals or fewer, most of them narrow Latvian victories.
Latvia should have enough to edge this one, possibly repeating the familiar 1–0 scoreline. The low-intensity nature of both teams’ play and the lack of attacking quality make Under 2.5 goals a measured and reliable betting angle.
